Voters in California cast their ballots on Proposition 50 on 4 November, and overwhelmingly supported the proposition, with 63.8% of voters approving the bill, and just 36.2% voting against it. Prop 50 is a hugely important bill, which allows the legislature to redraw California’s congressional map, which analysts say could help Democrats to flip up to five House seats.

 

The Democrats – specifically Gavin Newsom, Governor of California – have framed this as a defence of democracy, and a direct response to the redistricting efforts in Texas, which was designed to help turn seats Republican. Given that the 2026 mid-term elections are approaching, the timing of this vote is critical.

Polls right now favour the Democrats for power of the House…

Polls right now favour the Democrats for power of the House: YouGov found that 46% of registered voters would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district if the election were held today, compared with 39% for the Republican candidate. Tien and Lewis-Beck forecast that Republicans will lose 28 seats and the House in the midterms. If this forecast is correct, Trump’s power will diminish: he will not be able to pass legislation with as much ease and there will also be heavier congressional oversight of his administration. This isn’t surprising, though: historically, it is the case that the party of the President loses House seats – this has happened in 20 out of the last 22 midterms.

Historically, it is the case that the party of the President loses House seats…

It is not just Texas that has sought to favour Republicans with changes in their congressional maps: North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio have all passed new maps that give Republicans an advantage. Newsom claims as a result of this, Democrats must fight fire with fire, saying ‘These folks don’t play by the rules. If they can’t win playing the game with the existing set of rules, they’ll change the rules. That’s what Donald Trump has done’. He goes even further with his criticism of Trump and his administration, claiming that ‘democracy is under assault before our eyes’. This win is a major and personal win for Newsom, and has elevated his national profile. This is helpful for the Democrats, who have appeared lost since Harris’s defeat at the 2024 election – especially given his apparent aspirations to seek the Presidency in 2028.

 

Despite the bill’s heavy backing, Prop 50 is not without its controversies. Erik Nisbet, a professor at Northwestern University, tells the BBC what he sees as the problem with this gerrymandering: ‘The question now is where does this stop? It’s political sabotage to our democracy’. 

Despite the bill’s heavy backing, Prop 50 is not without its controversies…

The US justice department is currently filing a lawsuit against California as a result of these maps – they claim that these new maps are racially gerrymandered. Despite the fact that gerrymandering – the redrawing of congressional districts to give a party an advantage – is legal in the US, racial gerrymandering is unconstitutional. The justice department claimed that they found ‘substantial evidence’ that in these new maps Latino demographics and racial considerations were predominant. Attorney General, Rob Bonta, defended Newsom and Proposition 50, pointing out that there have been several legal challenges which have been brought against Prop 50 and failed.

 

With Prop 50 being approved by voters, California faces a period of legal and political uncertainty as courts evaluate the new maps and state officials prepare for their potential use in the 2026 elections. As both Republicans and Democrats leaders across the U.S. continue to look into redistricting congressional maps, the question remains: how will this affect the mid-terms and who will have control of the House?

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