Things are looking good for the Democrats. The American public seem to have lost patience with Donald Trump over his disastrous Iran war and the consequent surges in the cost of living. The President’s approval ratings have dropped from 50 to 37% across his second term, and polls suggest that both the House of Representatives and the Senate are headed for Democrat majorities on November 3rd. A Democrat takeover of Congress would make it harder for Trump to carry through new legislation and would leave cabinet members- perhaps even the President himself (for a third time)- at risk of impeachment!

The President’s approval ratings have dropped from 50 to 37% across his second term…

Not so fast. A midterm loss may not mean a defeated Trump. Firstly, many of the 47th President’s more controversial policies have been in the form of executive orders rather than congressional bills, allowing him to essentially bypass Congress. Examples of Trump’s executive orders have included withdrawing the US from the World Health Organisation, ending all “Diversity, Equity and Inclusion programs” throughout the government, and various controversial tariff implementations. 

Executive orders are nothing new, every President has made at least one. That is, except William Henry Harrison, but then again, he did die 31 days into his term, so we’ll forgive him. Franklin D. Roosevelt tops the list with 3,726 executive orders across his 12 years as President. He also leads the orders per year with an average of 307. In comparison, Trump made 220 in his first term and is currently on 289 in his second. 

Executive orders can be nullified, but this would require the support of two thirds of Congress, which is unlikely. As Trump and his policies become more and more unpopular, executive orders will become a more and more potent tool for the President, allowing him to continue to dictate US politics even in the aftermath of a midterm defeat.

As Trump and his policies become more and more unpopular, executive orders will become a more and more potent tool for the President…

Statistics over. One of the most lethal strings to Trump’s bow (or maybe the idiom is bullets and guns in America?) has always been his almost enviable talent to turn bad news into good (if often fake) news. I can only imagine how he’ll spin a midterm defeat into a positive, but he’ll sure give it a try. Here are a few of my predictions. Please imagine them posted on X or Truth Social by Donald J. Trump:

‘The Democrats are so TERRIBLE that people just voted out of sympathy. No one really likes them!’

‘ANOTHER CHEATED ELECTION. Everyone knows that Donald J. Trump really won!’

‘The only person to blame for this is SADIQ KHAN. He is an AWFUL person who has done a TERRIBLE JOB as Mayor of England.’ 

I jest, but the 2021 Capitol storming demonstrated just how loyal his supporters are to his ludicrous causes. 

Ludicrous though his causes may seem, if the last two years have taught us anything, it’s that Trump’s unseriousness has to be taken seriously. At first glance, “the Gulf of America”, Canada the 51st state, and a £5000 reward for voting Republican may seem laughable, but combine them with his impeccable command over communication, and people buy into it. Trump has never been held to account by the media to the same standards as other Presidents, to the point where he can essentially say whatever he likes, however false or ridiculous, and go unchallenged. On the rare occasion he is challenged, he can just ban that journalist from the White House. Or call them piggy. I don’t think I’d even call a pig who’d offended me piggy. 

Perhaps this speaks to flaws in the media, but needless to say it makes Trump dangerously powerful, and suggests that even after a midterm defeat he’ll retain his dominance. 

If this holds true for Trump, and his first two years are anything to go by – Iran, ICE, tariffs – God knows what legacy building he’ll pursue after the midterms

Presidents tend to change gear in the last two years of their presidency in one last push to cement their legacy. In 2006, a midterm-battered George W Bush unleashed a further surge of forces in Iraq, and Barack Obama secured his 2015 nuclear deal with Iran after losing control of the Senate. If this holds true for Trump, and his first two years are anything to go by – Iran, ICE, tariffs – God knows what legacy building he’ll pursue after the midterms. We can hope the results may limit Trump’s legal capacity- but, with presidential constitutional privileges, a following so dedicated they would riot at his command, and a grip over public communication like no President before him- a Democrat victory will not mean a lame Donald Duck president, but a Trump more determined, more unpredictable, and more dangerous than ever.

 

 

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